estimating uncertainty and sediment yield contribution of forest roads in ziarat drainage basin, gorgan province using geochemical tracers

identifying sediment sources is one of important factors in selecting of appropriate method of erosion control and soil conservation. the main objective of this study is to estimateuncertainty and contribution of forest roads to sediment yield in ziarat drainage basin, gorgan city using geochemical tracers. for this purpose, 47 soil samples were collected from different sources with different land uses and 14 suspended sediment samples collected from basin outlet. in order to identify sources of basin sediment yield and determine individual contribution of each source, 11 geochemical tracers including oc (organic carbon), sr, ni, na, k, cu, fe, mn, ca, mg, and pb were measured in sediment and suspended-sediment samples. by comparing the tracers in the sediment sources and using statistical analyses of kruskall-wallis test and discriminant function analysis (dfa), three tracers of oc, cu, and fe were selected as optimum set of tracers in separating sediment sources. eventually, using bayesian model, land uses of agriculture, road construction and forest with 67.1(61.6-71.8), 31.4(27.1-35.9), and 1.2(0.1-5.1) percent, respectively were determined as the relative contribution from each source in sediment yield, and the highest uncertainty is related to the agricultural land use. the results of this study can be used to select the best appropriate method of erosion control in the study area and similar areas.